Excess Returns

517 - We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

517 - We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins

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Excess Returns

Episodes

We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins

The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float

Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction

He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps

The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet

Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing

He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off

Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits

He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%

Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom

Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On

He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is

Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan

He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different

We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It

We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead

The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate

We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels

We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market

The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market

Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World

Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think

The Secular Plateau | Chris Bloomstran on Why We May Be at Peak Valuations

We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead

The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market

The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide

The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype

The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time

The Inevitability No One Sees | $11 Billion Tech Manager on What Investors Miss About AI

The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy

The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t

The Inflections Wall Street Misses | Harris Kupperman on Finding Overlooked Opportunities

The Moment Common Knowledge Changed | Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman

The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths

Nothing Is Priced In | Bob Elliott on Why Investors Are Misreading the Oil Shock

The 0.1% Winners | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Why Outliers Drive Returns

Big Decline. Options Support Gone | Brent Kochuba on the Fragile Market Setup

The War Markets Can't Price | Jared Dillian on the Regime Change Investors Miss

They Call It a Lottery Ticket. The Data Says Otherwise | D.A. Wallach on The Hidden Alpha of Biotech

14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026

The $1 Trillion Supercycle Hidden in Plain Sight | Joseph Shaposhnik

Survival First. Returns Second | Vitaliy Katsenelson on Investing Amid Extreme Uncertainty

What War Charts and AI Bubbles Miss | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026

1% Growth. Zero Jobs | Jim Paulsen on the Recession Hiding in Plain Sight

The Widest Valuation Gap in History | Rob Arnott on What Investors Are Missing About AI

100% Out of US Stocks | Andy Constan on AI, War Risk and the Shift Abroad

Is AI Replacing Workers Faster Than We Think? | We Break Down the Viral AI Doom Loop Article

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